Analysis of the Dynamic Relations among Prices of Agricultural Products, Exchange Rate and Inflation

Abstract

China-US trade frictions have become more and more intense under the circumstances of both sides raising tariffs. Under this background, international agricultural trade and RMB exchange rate have responded accordingly, and domestic price level is inevitably affected. Under the background of current trade frictions, the study and analysis of the inflation effects of fluctuations in agricultural prices and RMB exchange rate will be conducive to better regulating domestic prices and stabilizing the new normal economic development in the new era. The establishment of Auto-Vector regression model (VAR model) shows that there is a significant dynamic relationship between agricultural product price, RMB exchange rate and inflation.