Boya Century Publishing

Academic
Efficient
Fast
Article Details
SAMMS022.pdf
Article Title : Analysis on the influencing factors of international crude oil price based on the VAR model
Author(s) : Chen Wu
Corresponding Author : Chen Wu
Keywords : Crude oil price; VAR model; Impulse response; Variance decomposition; Influential factor.
PDF : http://download.BCPub.org/proceedings/2021/SAMMS2021/SAMMS022.pdf
Abstract

The world economic structure has been profoundly changed by the global spread of COVID-19. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of fundamental and non-fundamental factors on the international oil price in the post epidemic era, so as to better predict the price of crude oil. Based on this, this paper selects WTI as the research object, selects U.S. oil consumption, U.S. crude oil production, U.S. crude oil inventory, U.S. dollar index as the fundamental factors and financial factors, and analyzes the dynamic path between various influencing factors and international crude oil prices from January 2010 to February 2021 by constructing a multivariable var model. Before the establishment of the VAR model, the ADF method is used to test the stationarity of the series, then cointegration test is used to test whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the non-stationary series, and the Granger causality test is used to determine the causal relationship between the selected factors and WTI after cointegration test. After the above tests, the VAR model is established, and impulse response and variance decomposition are carried out. From the impulse response function, we can see that the US dollar index futures, US crude oil production and US crude oil inventory have a significant negative impact on the international oil price, and the cumulative impulse response function of US oil consumption has a significant negative impact on the international oil price. The variance decomposition results show that the contribution of U.S. oil consumption, U.S. crude oil production, U.S. crude oil inventory, U.S. dollar index futures and WTI to the international oil price changes are about 2.206%, 1.648%, 5.276%, 36.742% and 54.128%, respectively, indicating that the U.S. dollar index is the main factor of the international oil price WTI changes. Through the above analysis, we can better understand the changing trend of international oil prices in the post epidemic era, and facilitate the next step of prediction.

Contact email:contact@bcpub.org
Journals
Proceedings