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Article Title : The Scenario Prediction Framework of the Aviation Industry under COVID-19
Author(s) : Yujin Wu
Corresponding Author : Yujin Wu
Keywords : OLS; Labor Supply Curve; The Aviation Industry.

The COVID-19 crisis severely hit the global economy, and among the fields it affects, the aviation industry is one of the most being influenced. Based on the ordinary least square (OLS) model and labor supply curve, the change of the total revenue moving trend of the aviation industry can be forecasted. At high, medium, and negative wage changing rates, the whole industry is expected to see negative, medium, and high revenue changes in 2019. Then, economic models are used to evaluate the result and confirm the correctness of the high wage changing model and the medium wage changing model. The social meaning of the negative wage changing model is also explained. This research is especially helpful to the leaderships of airline companies because it provides them with reasonable forecasts about their potential decisions, and encourages the public to be confident in the aviation industry, as we are still not under the harshest condition.